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Sunday, February 28, 2010

Indian Life Insurance Industry- Challenges and Opportunities

The Strategic Information bijay-lifeinsurance.blogspot.com
The strategic future of life insurance will be guided by demographic transition and next practice technology.The demographic transition has economic significance. For example after the birth rate drops and before the elderly population rises significantly, there is a time when the working-age share of the population peaks. People of working age have fewer children to support but do nor yet have many elderly. At this peak, the population reaches its maximum of productivity.
Other Technology functions can be harnessed for modeling, data collection, data analysis and specialized insurance applications. A country’s age structure affects its economy. Increasing integration of the global economy makes it possible for one region’s age structure affect economic activity in other region’s age atructure to affect economic activity in other regions. As with all surveys, the estimates may differ from the actual values because of sampling variation or other factors but the direction is known with reasonable certainty and the magnitude is indicated through a graphic smoothing. Although the future is unknownable, demographic projections have a degree of validity that many other types of forecasts lack. The present situation supplies useful information about the future. It is certain that everyone who is now alive will age and eventually die. The distribution of the current population by age offers useful information about the age structure of the future population. Historical changes in the fertility rates of the developed world have had considerable predictive value regarding the fertility rates in the developing world.
bijay-lifeinsurance.blogspot.com

Demographic Dynamics
The world’s population will grow to about 9.1 billion in 2050. It will raise to 6.8 billion in 2010 and 7.8 billion in 2025. The overall rate of population growth is slowing. The vast majority of the growth is likely to occur in developing countries, which has four times the population of developed countries with one-fourth gross domestic product. The population of developing countries will increase 61% by 2050 as their birth rate is twice as much as developed countries at almost 24 births per thousand population. China and India together have only half of the total population of the developing world. People aged 15-64 are considered of working age . This working age population of developing countries will become seven times the working population of developed countries. This multiplier is the greatest future strength of developing countries. Another adversity waiting for developed country is elderly population,who are above 65 years age. The elderly will increase from 6.9% to 16.3% of the world’s total population. Almost four out of five (78.6%) of the world’s elderly in 2050 will live in developing countries.
The number of children (Ages0-14) in the world will rise only 2.2%. The 4.4% increase for developing countries will be counteracted by a 12% decline in developed countries. A dependency ratio is the ratio between workers and non workers. In developed countries, increase in elderly dependences will exceed increase in elderly ones.
China will reach peak working-age population- share in 2010. compared to Brazil, Indonesia, India, Mexico and a host of other developing countries will have younger work forces on average than china and much younger work forces than current developed countries will have the opportunity to play this role in the period leading up to 2025 when their younger population may give them labor cost advantages compared to China and much better advantage compared to current developed countries. An increasing share of the world’s health will move to economically successful developing countries and be controlled by them. Skilled developing countries will use their production advantage to build wealth. There will be more ads proclaiming “let us plan to be wealthy”.
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Effects on The demographic Transition
Wise insurers of developed countries have already spotted this signal and they are consciously shifting their focus to china and India as also other developing countries. Instead of fighting the market share war, they are quietly winning the battles of regulatory buy-ins for a strategic assertion of their presence. Their conscious and implosive expansion is dedicated by the possibilities of assests bubbles in such countries surfacing intermittently. During growth phase all bubbles lay hid below the expanding membrance of growth. But a phase of growth is always accomplished by technical correction, which economists call consolidation . The bubbles surface, if the growth membrance was allowed to inflate in harmony with local companies. Usually strategic foreign insurers run for a sprint after weathering two three bursting of market bubbles.
The developed world is tending towards older and assest-rich households. They look for high returns and put their money at places to get high returns. Indirectly, They have helped fund growth in developing countries on this account. The developing world on the other hand start with low-wage, young-adult work forces migrate themselves or their output and become target for outsourcing services. The asian tigers for outsourcing Services. The asian tigers started but couldnot sustainably manage this phenomenon. Though South East Asian crisis halted their march, the residue stamped permanence in their standard of living. The experience silently entered into erstwhile population behemoths but here crisis may not be as threatening due to large domestic consumer market hedging any international adverse developments. Insurance paradise is in the making in such regions of the world.

POST by Bijay Thapa. bijay-lifeinsurance.blogspot.com

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